Presidency and Senate Mismatch
Critical Analysis
According to the data from the visual above, in the 2022 election what percent of senate elections were won by candidates from the same party as their state’s most recent presidential election winner?
According to the data from the visual above, in the 1980 election what percent of senate elections were won by candidates from the same party as their state’s most recent presidential election winner?
Describe one trend regarding mismatching Senate/presidential votes?
How does that trend impact the likelihood of divided government?
As recently as 2006, nearly a third of Senate contests (10 out of 33) were won by candidates of different parties than their state’s most recent presidential pick, but this year only one of the35 Senate elections in the 2022 midterm didn’t go the same way as the state’s 2020 presidential vote. The exception was Wisconsin, where Republican Sen. Ron Johnson won a third term this year by fewer than 27,000 votes – or 1% of the nearly 2.65 million votes cast – even though Democrat Joe Biden carried the state (by fewer than 21,000 votes) in 2020. Explain why most states senate elections are won by the same party as their state’s most recent presidential pick?
How will the outcome of this year’s election, as show in the visual above, impact Joe Biden’s ability to govern?
The number of House seats won by candidates of different parties than their state’s most recent presidential pick is much higher than the number in the senate. What about the way we vote explains this difference?
Based on the visual below*, describe the partisan difference in mismatches between senate and presidential winners.
Why do you think that is?
Not all states elect a senator each year. Just at 1/3 of states have a senate election in midterm elections. If your state had a senate election this year, did your state pick a senator from the same party as the winner of the last presidential election?
Learning Extension
Read this rowdy and ribald Pew Research analysis of mismatched senate and presidential elections. (WARNING: May not be suitable for all viewers.)
Action Extension
Research your state’s U.S. Senate delegation to learn when your senators are next up for election. My Senators are Thom Tillis (R) up for reelection in 2026, and incoming Senator Ted Budd (R) up for reelection in 2028. Ted Budd (R) won the 2022 North Carolina senate election, as did the Republican presidential candidate (R) in 2020. Share your research in class.