Inexperience for the win!
Critical Analysis
According to the data form the graph above, in 1980, what percentage of candidates with no elected experience won open-seat (an election where there is no incumbent) house primaries?
According to the data form the graph above, in 2020, what percentage of candidates with no elected experience won open-seat house primaries?
Describe one trend in the graph above?
Explain whether, in most professions (e.g., airline pilot, political scientist, dentist, teacher, plumber) experience is a good thing?
Who was the most recent candidate who won the presidency without having had any previous elected experience?
How did that work out for our nation, and do you think that will impact the willingness of Americans to take a chance on presidential candidates with no experience?
The data from this chart comes from experienced political scientists Rachel Porter and Sarah Treul from the great state of North Carolina (WHOOT!). There are many reasons North Carolina the best state in the USA. But what I’d like to you do in this question is to explain whether you, in general, would vote for an inexperienced candidate?
What do you think is the most significant consequence of the rise of inexperienced candidates?
How do you think our adversaries, countries like China and Russia that value experience in political leadership feel about our increasing willingness to be lead by rookies?
In the past, the conventional political science wisdom was the experience beats inexperience almost every time. Porter and Sarah Treul’s research shows that things have changed dramatically and points to a number of reasons why inexperienced candidates are having more success. How do you think the following have contributed to the success of inexperienced candidates:
The rise of internet fundraising.
The rise of viral videos - an amateur candidate can raise millions with the right viral video.
The rise of ideological PACs — interest groups focused on a narrow range of issues or just one.
The rise of political extremism and political polarization.
The weakening of political parties.
The general dislike of political institutions like Congress and the Presidency.
The court holding from Citizens United v. FEC..
Learning Extension
Read the FiveThirtyEight article about why inexperienced candidates are on the rise.
Action Extension
It’s likely that more amateurs could be headed to Capitol Hill after the 2022 midterm elections — potentially lesser-known House candidates, like AirBnB executive Andrew Kalloch running as a Democrat in Oregon, or higher-profile U.S. Senate contenders, like television personality and physician Mehmet Öz running as a Republican in Pennsylvania. Contact an inexperienced candidate that you admire and volunteer on their campaign.