Primary Challenge
Table 1: Postwar House incumbent renomination rate
Critical Analysis
According to the data from the chart above, since 1946, in what year did the largest number of incumbents lose renomination primary races?
Describe one trend over time in the data from the chart above.
Explain why incumbents renomination rates are so high.
How does the incumbents renomination rate impact the entire political process.
In the 1970s, 33% of all House districts were classified as competitive. By the 2010s that number had dropped to 14% and the number of safe districts had increased from 30% to 60%. And the trend towards more and more safe seats appears to be continuing as states finish drawing their maps after the 2020 census. With more and more states and congressional districts becoming dominated by one party or the other, the only real choices for voters come in party primaries. However, based on the data from the chart above, is there much mystery in who is going to win primary elections?
The other day, someone said that if I ran as challenger to an incumbent in a U.S. House race I would win. I said, “oh hells no!” What does the chart above say about the likelihood of any challenger winning a primary election?
You may notice that incumbent renomination losses are higher than usual in the following years: 1962, 1972, 1982, 1992, 2002, 2012. What happens in each decennial year: 1960, 1970, 1980, etc. that causes losses in the following year to increase?
Based on the chart above, estimate what primary election reelection rates will look like this year.
A recent Brooking Institute report on primary elections, declared that, “Party primaries are now the most consequential elections in American politics.” Do you agree with that statement?
The word democracy is never mentioned in the Declaration of Independence or in the U.S. Constitution. And, at the time of the founding of our nation (and for many years afterwards) women and non-Whites could not vote. Clearly, the Framers were not sure about empowering all people to make decisions about the leaders of their government. What would the Framers think about the data from the chart above and the lack of competition in today’s elections?
Learning Extension
Read this highly classified report on Incumbent renominations from the U.V.A. Center for Politics.
Action Extension
Register to vote (it will only less than two minutes) and vote against any incumbents.