How often does the top spending candidate win election?
Percentage of races won by top-spending candidate
Critical Analysis
Find answers to the following questions using the visual above, any links below, your big brain, and your knowledge of American government and politics:
According to the data from the chart above, in 2004 what percent of the time did the House member who outspent their opponent win election?
According to the data from the chart above, in 2022 what percent of the time did the Senate member who outspent their opponent win election?
According to the data from the chart above, on average over time how often does the higher spending U.S. House candidate win election?
Initial findings from an empirical analysis of 2020 U.S. Senate race data by the Harvard Political Review suggest that there is some evidence to support the notion that money may influence electoral outcomes. In 25 of the 35 (71%) U.S. Senate races during the 2020 election cycle, the candidate that out raised and outspent their opponent won the election; if money had absolutely no influence on election results, one could reasonably expect a proportion closer to a 50-50 split. Make a claim to explain why higher spending candidates win.
What is the most important political consequence of this trend.
While the candidate who spends the most money usually wins, that does NOT mean that spending caused the win. Richard Lau, professor of political science at Rutgers, wrote “I think it’s more that winning attracts money.” Explain whether you believe money causes winning.
Claim: this chart is proof that America is not a democracy. Respond to this claim using the chart and your knowledge of American government and politics.
List one step the U.S. Congress could take to lessen the power of money in elections.
The First Amendment states, “Congress shall make no law..abridging the freedom of speech,” If Congress made a law limiting spending in elections and campaigns would that be a violation of freedom of speech?
In 2010, in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against the Bipartisan Campaign reform Act (2002), which had regulated spending in Elections. Explain the connection between the Citizens United case and the data in the chart?
Write and Discuss
Take ten minutes to write about the question at the top of the page and then discuss with your classmates.
Act on your Learning
Look at the data from the 2020 U.S. Senate races to see how often the higher spending candidate won. Total up the percent of higher spending winners and then write the data onto the chart above for 2020. Share your data with class.
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Get Creative
If the money in politics was a movie, what movie would it be?
Learn More*
This 538 article argues that while the candidate who spends the most money wins, money does not cause the win. In fact, the article argues that advertising isn’t even very effective.
US Government and Politics
Percent of Races won by Top Spending Candidate
