Critical Analysis
Find answers to the following questions using the visual above, your big brain, the information provided and any links below:
Using the chart, which election cycle was the most expensive? Was it a midterm or a presidential cycle?
Calculate how much more the 2022 midterms cost than the 2018 midterms. By about what percent did spending grow?
Describe the zigzag pattern in the chart. Why do presidential cycles almost always cost more than midterm cycles? Think about which offices are on the ballot.
From 2014 to 2022, midterm spending went from $3.8B to $8.9B. From 2016 to 2024, presidential spending went from $6.5B to $15.9B. Calculate how many times bigger each one got. Are midterms really catching up?
The 2026 bar is striped and marked “estimate.” Explain why it isn’t fair to compare it directly with the other bars. Will the real total cost of 2026 end up higher or lower than $11.6 billion, and why?
In 2024, 25 Senate incumbents raised $780 million, while their challengers raised $378 million. Explain how this fundraising gap helps explain the incumbency advantage.
Ad spending is starting earlier every cycle. By August 2025, it was 33% higher than at the same point in 2023. Why would campaigns and super PACs want to spend so much more than a year before Election Day?
Projected Senate ad spending ($2.8B) is higher than House spending ($2.2B), even though there are 435 House seats and only 35 Senate seats on the ballot. Explain why individual Senate races attract so much more money.
In Citizens United v. FEC (2010), the Supreme Court ruled that corporations and unions can make unlimited independent expenditures. Using the chart, did spending grow in the years after the decision? Can the chart prove that Citizens United caused the increase? Why or why not?
Is the rising cost of elections good or bad for democracy? Does more money give voters more information, or does it make it harder for ordinary people to run for office? Support your answer with evidence from the visual and from your own life. For example, how many political ads have you seen this month?
Write and Discuss
Take ten minutes to write about the question at the top of the page and then discuss with your classmates.
Act on your Learning
Pick your U.S. House district or your state’s Senate race. Look up how much the incumbent has raised compared with the challenger, and share whether the incumbency advantage holds in your race.
Get Creative
Hank and Roger are running for Congress in an expensive district. Design a 30-second campaign ad for one of them, and decide whether you’d spend your money on TV, streaming or social media. Explain why.
Learn More*
Check out this fantabulous article on money and elections from Five Thirty Eight. After November 3, look up OpenSecrets’ final cost of the 2026 election. Add the real 2026 bar to the chart. Did 2026 beat 2022? Did it come close to a presidential cycle?
