How many competitive House seats will there be in the 2026 midterm election?

*A competitive seat is a seat in a district held that is generally competitive in a legislative election. The opposite of a competitive seat, is a safe sea: a district that is drawn so that it is predictably won by one party or the other, so the success of that party's candidate is almost guaranteed.

Critical Analysis

1. A U.S. House congressional district that was within five points of the national result is considered a competitive seat. We might envision these seats as purple - where a Republican (red) or Democrat (blue) could possibly win the election. In 1976, the U.S. House of Representatives had 101 “structurally competitive” congressional districts where either party had a reasonable chance of winning in an electoral cycle. According to the chart above, out of 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives what year had the lowest number of competitive House seats?

2. According to the chart above, out of 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, between 1976 and 2024 what was the average number of competitive seats in House elections?

3. Based on current maps, just 33 out of 435 House districts were decided by less than 5 points — that’s less than 8% of districts. Put another way, sixty-seven percent of the country’s structurally competitive House seats have disappeared in the last fifty years. Based on the data from the chart above, describe how the number of competitive seats has changed over time.

4. Many political scientists see midterm elections as referendums on the job the president is doing. Currently, American public opinion has turned against Donald Trump with his most recent approval rating averaging around 38% and his disapproval rating around 58%. Despite Trump’s historically bad polling numbers, many political scientists think the 2026 elections will be close because of gerrymandering. What do they mean by this?

5. Typically, U.S. House districts are redrawn every 10 years, based on the decennial census. Recently, districts have been redrawn between every House election to maximize success for each political party based on what state legislatures they control. How does this frequent redistricting impact the level of American democracy?

6. If you were a politician running for office in a competitive seat, explain what incentive you would have to listen to the will of the people?

7. In a competitive democracy the voters pick the representatives, in a non-competitive democracy, the representatives pick the voters. Is the American system more of a competitive or non-competitive system?

8. Which party do you think will take the majority of the House in the 2026 midterm elections?

9. Why does House majority power matter?

10. The chart above shows the long slide toward “safe-seat democracy.” Competitive seats were common through the 1970s, 1980s, and early 1990s. They started to vanish after the 1992 election, with another sharp decline after Barack Obama’s election in 2008 and the increasing relationship between white racial identity and voting Republican across the U.S. Immigration and race have played a big role in elections. How has that impacted politics where you live?

Write and Discuss

Take ten minutes to write about the question at the top of the page and then discuss with your classmates.

Act on your Learning

Find out if your district is a swing seat. Share your answer in class or online. Contact your US House representative and explain to them why they do or don't need to listen to the will of the people or compromise in any way.

Get Creative

Imagine that a true American hero like George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt, or the most popular living American - Dolly Parton - ran for the minority party in a non-competitive district. Describe how they would do in their election.

Learn More*

I have not lived in a swing seat during my adulthood. Instead, the two districts I have lived in have been safe for one party for the past two decades. Check out the Cook Political Report chart of very few competitive races from 2016 or take a gander at this interactive map of competitive seats from 270 to Win or just watch the videos on redistricting below.