Racing for Votes
AP US Government and Politics
When an area is over 85% White, how does that affect support for Trump?
How accurate was your prediction?
What story does this chart tell?
Why is that?
What is a consequence of this.
How much did race impact the 2016 election?
This chart comes from a New York Times article by Thomas Edsall. Here is a quote from the article: Dravosburg, Pa. is a small — population 1,746 — working-class suburb that lies along the Monongahela River 10 miles southeast of Pittsburgh. If we want to understand what actually propelled Donald Trump to victory last November, presidential voting patterns there provide a vital clue. In 2012, Dravosburg backed Barack Obama over Mitt Romney 441 to 312, or 53.4 percent to 44.8 percent. Four years later, the men and women of Dravosburg abandoned their Democratic loyalties and backed Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton, 56.3 to 41.1. In that light, look more closely at Dravosburg. In 2000, according to the United States Census Bureau, 1,989 out of 2,015 residents — 98.7 percent — were white; 10 were black; and 12 were Hispanic. By 2016, the census reported, the total population had fallen to 1,746 — 95.4 percent of them white. The number of blacks and Hispanics, still tiny, had grown rapidly, however, to 39 (a 290 percent increase), and to 25 (a 108 percent increase). What does this excerpt of the story mean to you?
And how did this demographic change impact the election in Davosborg and other White super-majority enclaves?
There have been studies showing that Americans who live in close proximity to diverse America (immigrants, refugees, Muslims, etc.) have little fear of these groups, whereas people who live farther away from these groups feared them the most. Here;s a quote from Thomas Edsall, the author of the article this data comes from. "Put another way, anger, fear and animosity toward immigrants and minorities was most politically potent in the communities most insulated from these supposed threats." Why do you think that is?
How much do you think fear drives politics?
Had Donald Trump not been specifically racist and anti-immigrant do you think he would have won white enclaves like Dravosborg in the 2016 election?
What specific rhetoric from the Trump campaign would the people of Dravosborg been especially excited about?
What specific policy promises from the Trump campaign would the people of Dravosborg been especially excited about?
How do you think residents of places like Dravosborg currently evaluate the success of President Trump in enacting the rhetoric or policy promises from the campaign?
Explain whether many people in Dravosborg and Elks County have read this article by Thomas Edsall or regualrly read the New York Times?
Do you think the folks from Dravosborg and Elks County will vote for Trump again in 2020?
In 2012, Dravosburg backed Barack Obama over Mitt Romney 441 to 312, or 53.4 percent to 44.8 percent. Why do you think the residents of Dravosburg voted for Obama? And why did they like Trump more than Romney?
Did you know that Mitt Romney, Republican candidate for President in 2012 got more votes than Trump got in 2016? I did. Here's how many more votes he got: Trump won 45.93 percent of the total vote last year, 1.2 percentage points less than Romney’s 47.1 percent in 2012. How could Trump have done worse than Romney and also won the election?
If all these super-white enclaves were in super-Republican states like Idaho it would not have mattered as much. What do you think happened in super-White enclaves in swing states?*
Given the racism and xenophobia of places like Dravosborg, explain whether you believe Democrats could possibly defeat Trump in 2020?
Edsall writes, "The core of Trump’s support lies in counties and municipalities like Dravosburg and Elk County, many of which are losing population. They are, in effect, the last gasp of white hegemony." Do you think he's right or will white hegemony continue in America?
