Midterm POTUS Popularity Contest

Starters

Oct 27

Written By Jonathan Milner

Critical Analysis

Based on the data from the visual above, roughly what was president Biden’s approval rating in August of this year?
Between 1947-2018, in how many years did the president’s party actually gain house seats in a midterm election?
In general, what rule would you create to describe the relationship between presidential approval and results in the midterm election.
In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 -2018, the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. The president’s party gained seats in the House only three times, but gained seats in the Senate on six occasions. The president’s party has gained seats in both houses only twice. Why do you think that presidential approval ratings impact congressional elections?
According to Gallup Polling, Joseph Biden currently has an approval rating of around 40%. If Biden's approval rating remains constant, according to the data above, approximately how many House seats will the Republican Party gain?
Evaluate the following statement by explaining what is incorrect about it. "When I vote in a midterm election, I am voting for a member of congress, not the president."
Imagine there is a proposal to eliminate midterm elections and hold US elections every four years. The term of the POTUS would remain at 4 years, the term of the US House would be 4 years, and the Senate term would be 8 years. Explain whether you think this would be a good idea.
Imagine that President Biden's approval ratings remain basically constant and his party loses control of the House and Senate. How will a Republican majority House and Senate affect Biden’s ability to govern?
If you could vote, how much do you imagine that President Biden will influence your voting decisions in the 2022 election?
What are some aspects of the US electoral system that will keep Biden's unpopularity from hurting Democrats too much in the midterm elections?