Stalemate
Critical Analysis
According to the data in the chart, what year had the biggest U.S. presidential election margin of victory ever?
According to the data in the chart, how big was Joe Biden’s margin of victory in the 2020 presidential election?
According to the data in the chart, what year was the last presidential election with a margin between candidates that was greater than ten points?
Before recent history, the previous all time record of presidential elections in a row without either party experiencing a landslide (defined as a national popular vote margin of at least 10 points) was seven (1876-1900). How many elections in a row have we NOT had a landslide victory?
Identify three reasons it has been so long since a landslide presidential victory?
What is one consequence of the consistently narrow margins of victory in recent presidential elections?
Explain how the data from the chart below impacts the margin of victory in recent presidential elections?*
Despite his historically low popularity (never cracking 45% approval), Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden by only about 4.45 percentage points, making it a historically small margin of victory. Explain why, despite Trump’s unpopularity, Biden won by so little.
Imagine that you were a president who won by over 10 points. What could you probably do that a president who barely won could not?
Because of these narrow victories, the president’s party tends to lose congressional power in the subsequent midterms. My friend Simon Pieman claims that Presidents are now really elected to just two years in office. Explain whether you agree with Mr. Pieman’s claim.
In most modern democracies, the party of the chief executive (president, prime minister, chancellor) is also, by design, the majority party in the legislature. Describes one positive effect of this type of system?
Now be creative - I demand it - and imagine how we would have to change our voting structure to make an automatically unified system (same majority in legislature and executive branch) happen.
Learning Extension
Read the FiveThirtyEight analysis of why presidential margins of victory are so teeny-tiny. Warning: Extremely Graphic Content. Do not read unless you are 18+. And even then, only with adult supervision and guidance.
Action Extension
Pick a party you like. Register for that party. Only vote for candidates from the same party for President and U.S House and Senate (if Senators in your state are up for election) no matter what you think of the individual candidates. Report back on how it went in 2024. I’ll be waiting to hear.
