Incumbent v. Incumbent
Critical Analysis
Based on the data from the table above, how many incumbents are running against incumbents in the 2022 midterm election?
Based on the data from the table above, of all the incumbents running against incumbents in the 2022 midterm election, which incumbent has the highest percent of their old district in their new district (and is thus most likely to win)?
The balance of power in the U.S. House between Democrats and Republicans currently stands at 226 Democrats, 214 Republicans, and 1 vacant seat. Overall, how will the outcome of the elections listed in the table above impact the party balance of power in the U.S. House?
We know that when U.S. House incumbents run against challengers, incumbents win, on average over 90% of the time. In 2020 incumbents won 98% of the time! Wow! Why is that?
According to the Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution, who draws the districts for U.S. House races?
Notice the states where incumbents are running against incumbents in the table above. Also, notice the 2020 reapportionment numbers in the map below*. Explain how reapportionment impacts incumbent v. incumbent elections?
We can assume that the state legislatures in Michigan, Illinois, West Virginia had no choice in putting put two incumbents in the same district. Explain why Georgia (which did not lose a district in reapportionment) put two incumbents up for election against each other.
Explain why it is not possible to have a current U.S. Senate incumbent run against another current Senate incumbent in a U.S. Senate race?
Explain why it is not possible to have a current U.S. House incumbent run against another current House incumbent in Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Delaware?
Imagine an Amendment to the U.S. Constitution that did not allow incumbents to run for reelection. Wow. (We already have Constitutional Amendment - the 22nd - which does not allow incumbent presidents from running for president more than once!) How would a lack of incumbents impact American politics.
Learning Extension
Here’s how the districts are drawn in the different states.
Action Extension
Now that you know how districts are drawn in the different states. Contact your state legislators and let them know what method you think they should use to draw district lines in your state.
