Exit Polls 2022 Round 1

Critical Analysis

1. Exit polls are an imperfect measure of the public, and no group of voters is monolithic, however exit polls give us lots of insights into voting behavior. Based on the exit polling data above, what portion of women voted Democratic in the election?

2. According to the data above, what portion of all voters in the 2022 midterm election were women?

3. We use the term gender gap describes the difference by which both genders tend to support one party more than the other. What is the best explanation for the gender gap?

4. Although no voting group is monolithic, women clearly favored the Democratic party in the 2022 midterm elections. Why do you think women voted more Democratic in 2022?

5. It’s interesting to note that the Hispanic vote in the 2020 Presidential election was 65% Democrat to 32% Republican. However, in this year’s midterm, Democrats were only able to win 60% of the Hispanic vote (down 5%). Why do you think the Hispanic vote is trending toward the Republican Party?

6. I have heard a number of political analysts say that Generation Z and the youth vote was the only thing that kept Democrats from losing more seats in Congress. Respond to that claim, based on the data above.

7. Based on the exit poll demographics from the visual above draw two conclusions about demographics and voting as of 2022.

8. Despite the clarity in the numbers above, we still don’t know the outcome of many elections, nor do we know the final party breakdown of the new congress. Explain why exit polling data does not translate more directly into congressional control (see visual below*).

9. What do you think the take-away message of the data above is to operatives in both parties.

10. I have heard a number of pundits say that it’s not clear who won the election (see visual below*), but it is very clear who lost the election: Donald Trump. Explain whether you agree with this assessment.

Learning Extension

Read the complete exit polling data.

Action Extension

Contact President-elect Biden and advise him, based on the exit polls, what he can do to be successful in the 2024 election.

Visual Extension*