How competitive were U.S. House races in 2024?
2024 Cook Political Report House Races Ratings
Critical Analysis
Find answers to the following questions using the visual above, any links below, your big brain, and your knowledge of American government and politics:
We’ve been learning a lot about the presidential elections. Don’t forget, every single House district was up for election in 2024. According to the chart above, out of 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives how many were toss ups or competitive (meaning that because there is less than a 10 point difference in the population of Democrats and Republicans in the district either party has a good chance of winning)?
Of the 425 seats in the House, in how many districts did we have a very solid and clear idea of who was going to win before the election?
In 2018 there were 62 competitive House races. After the 2020 census and subsequent redistricting, there were 41 competitive districts in the 2020 election. Describe the change in competitive House districts over the past 6 years.
Over the past decades America has experiences what demographers call The Great Sort. That is, Republicans are moving to republican districts and Democrats are moving to Democratic districts. leaving fewer mixed districts. Political scientists argue that many districts are becoming more homogeneous (similar) and thus less competitive. Explain one other reasons for the diminishing number of competitive elections.
Every ten years, the census is taken, and each state is allocated House seats based on population. This is called reapportionment. After reapportionment, states get to divide their state up into the number of districts they have been apportioned. Describe the general process used to draw district lines in U.S. house races?
Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Michigan, New York, and Washington — all draw both state and federal districts using an independent commission, with regulations limiting direct participation by elected officials. How do you think this impacts the number of competitive seats in these states?
According to the visual below*, there are still a number of races that are too close to call. Based on your knowledge of American government and politics, what conclusion can you draw about the nature of the districts that are too close to call.
Based on your knowledge of American politics and the visuals above and below*, which party do you think will win control of the House.
If you were a representative in a solid district (safe seat), explain what incentive you would have to listen to the will of the people?
Explain why the states of Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Delaware do not draw district lines?
*A swing seat or competitive seat is a district held with a small majority that is generally competitive in a legislative election. Because the number of Democrats and Republicans in a swing district are so close, a swing seat might be won by a Republican one election, and then a Democrat the next. This is also known as a competitive seat, the opposite of which is a safe sea: a district that is drawn so that it is predictably won by one party or the other, so the success of that party's candidate is almost taken for granted.
Write and Discuss
Take ten minutes to write about the question at the top of the page and then discuss with your classmates.
Act on your Learning
Find out if your district is a swing seat (toss up district). Share your answer in class or online. Contact your US House representative and explain to them why they do or don't need to listen to the will of the people or compromise in any way.
Get Creative
I had AI write a poem about gerrymandering. Use your own brain or your own AI to write your own poem about U.S. House elections.
In districts contorted, a democracy's plight,
Gerrymandering's grip, a partisan's delight.
Lines on a map, a serpentine's trace,
Carving out power, erasing voters' embrace.
Communities fractured, voices suppressed,
A symphony muted, its harmony messed.
The will of the people, a tapestry torn,
In the halls of power, a mandate is born.
But justice demands, a fair and square fight,
Where every vote counts, with all of its might.
For democracy's sake, let's redraw the lines,
With equity's compass, and reason's designs.
No more contortions, no more deceit,
A government for all, a balanced feat.
In every district, a voice that's heard,
Gerrymandering's end, a nation's word.
Learning Extension*
I have not lived in a swing seat during my adulthood. Instead, the two districts I have lived in have been safe for one party for the past two decades. Check out the Cook Political Report chart of very few competitive races from 2016 or take a gander at this interactive map of competitive seats from 270 to Win or just watch the videos on redistricting below.
As of 11/11/2024 some races are still too close to call.
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