How much does the State of the Union Address affect presidential approval?
Critical Analysis
Find answers to the following questions using the visual above, any links below, your big brain, and your knowledge of American government and politics:
According to the data from the visual above, what president’s State of the Union Address had the largest effect on their presidential approval rating?
Based on the data from the visual above, describe the overall impact the State of the Union Address has on presidential approval.
Why do you think that is?
Do you think POTUS Trump’s 2026 SOTU Address will have a major impact on his popularity which, according to Gallup, now stands at 36%?
When I was a kid, no matter the party of the president, my family almost always watched the State of the Union Address. Today, because of extreme partisanship, mostly partisans of the president watch the SOTU Address (Republicans watch Republican Presidents, Democrats watch Democratic Presidents) and the middle (independents don’t watch (see chart below)*. Make a claim about whether the general tuning out of the State of the Union Address Is good for American democracy.
Article II, section 3 of the U.S. Constitution describes the State of the Union Address, “He shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient. Over the years, “from time to time” have evolved into once a year. Why do you think the Framers wanted the President to speak before Congress?
Marshall McLuhan famously wrote, “the medium is the message.” meaning that, for example, if you see something on tv, it has a different impact than if you read about it in a pamphlet (hello Federalists!) The first televised SOTU didn’t happen until 1947. How different would the impact of the SOTU Address be if it were delivered by paper (as it originally was) instead of live on TV?
The SOTU doesn’t seem to have much of an impact on public opinion. Do you think it has much impact on public policy (see chart below*)?
Over the years SOTUs have been delivered by letter and in person. In the future, how do you think Presidents will deliver their addresses? For example, by Tweet? Hologram? In a cage match?
In recent years, there has always been a designated survivor (member of the cabinet who would succeed the president in case of his death) who is removed from the SOTU and taken to a safe and undisclosed location in case of catastrophe. Who do you predict will be the 2026 designated survivor?
Write and Discuss
Take ten minutes to write about the question at the top of the page and then discuss with your classmates.
Act on your Learning
The 2026 State of the Union Address Is Tuesday, Feb. 24 starting at 9 p.m. Eastern. Complete our SOTU 2026 worksheet while you watch the SOTU address.
Get Creative
Here is the list of the most recent designated survivors:
March 4, 2025 (Joint Address): Doug Collins, Secretary of Veterans Affairs
March 7, 2024 (State of the Union): Miguel Cardona, Secretary of Education
February 7, 2023 (State of the Union): Marty Walsh, Secretary of Labor
March 1, 2022 (State of the Union): Gina Raimondo, Secretary of Commerce
2021 (Joint Address): None (Due to COVID-19 pandemic attendance restrictions)
February 4, 2020 (State of the Union): David Bernhardt, Secretary of the Interior
February 5, 2019 (State of the Union): Rick Perry, Secretary of Energy
January 30, 2018 (State of the Union): Sonny Perdue, Secretary of Agriculture
If you were the designated survivor what do you think you would hope would happen at the SOTU?
Learning Extension
Read this FiveThirtyEight story, 3 Reasons That State of the Union Speeches don’t Matter.
