The Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat

*A swing seat is a district held with a small majority that is generally competitive in a legislative election. Because the number of Democrats and Republicans in a swing district are so close, a swing seat might be won by a Republican one election, and then a Democrat the next. This is also known as a competitive seat, the opposite of which is a safe sea: a district that is drawn so that it is predictably won by one party or the other, so the success of that party's candidate is almost taken for granted.

Critical Analysis

1. A U.S. House congressional district that is R+5 or greater has 5 or more % more Republican than Democratic voters and is thus solid red (likely Republican victory) in the visual above. According to the chart above, out of 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives how many were competitive (swing seats*) as of 2021 ?

2. According to the chart above, out of 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives how many were competitive (swing seats*) as of 1997?

3. Based on the data from the chart above, describe how the number of competitive seats has changed over time.

4. Explain two reasons for the change in the number of competitive districts/swing seats.

5. Describe the general process used to draw district lines in U.S. house races?

6. Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Michigan, New York, and Washington — all draw both state and federal districts using an independent commission, with regulations limiting direct participation by elected officials. How do you think this impacts the number of competitive seats in these states?

7. If you were a representative in a safe seat, explain what incentive you would have to listen to the will of the people?

8. Explain why the states of Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Delaware do not draw district lines?

9. How would having more competitive elections, instead of elections where we already know who will win in almost all elections, impact the kind of policies we get?

10. How does this information impact the ability of the federal government to solve problems?

Learning Extension

I have not lived in a swing seat during my adulthood. Instead, the two districts I have lived in have been safe for one party for the past two decades. Check out the Cook Political Report chart of very few competitive races from 2016 or take a gander at this interactive map of competitive seats from 270 to Win or just watch the videos on redistricting below.

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Action Extension

Find out if your district is a swing seat. Share your answer in class or online. Contact your US House representative and explain to them why they do or don't need to listen to the will of the people or compromise in any way.

Visual Extension*

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