Presidential approvall or nothing
Critical Analysis
According to the data from the graph above, how popular is President Biden currently?
Identify one trend from the data from the graph above.
What do you think is the best explanation for that trend?
Since about this time last year when the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, Joe Biden’s popularity has been “underwater,” which means his approval numbers (currently, 41.5% of voters) are lower than his disapproval numbers (currently, 53.8% of voters). Currently, Biden is 12.3% points underwater. What is the most Biden has been underwater in his presidency?
How does Biden’s current trajectory of presidential approval compare to other recent presidents?* (see visuals below)
Presidents usually enjoy a presidential honeymoon, a period of general popularity during the first hundred days or so of their term. President Biden enjoyed relatively steady and high approval for the first 6 months he was in office. On July 20, the six-month anniversary of his inauguration, his average job approval rating stood at 52.3 percent, and his average disapproval rating stood at 42.5 percent. Why do Presidents get a honeymoon?
Presidents often enjoy rally points when a war, the death of a national leader, or a national crisis causes the president’s approval to skyrocket. President George W. Bush experienced a rally point after the 9/11 attacks. Let’s totally invent a new GoPo term and call the opposite of a rally point, a stumbling block, a political disaster a president just can’t shake (like Vietnam for LBJ, the recession for GHW Bush, and (maybe?) COVID-19 for Trump. Do you think Biden has had more rally points or stumbling blocks, and if so, when did that happen?
Over the past few months Biden has passed the Inflation Reduction Act and gas prices have dropped. Joe Biden has seen a recent slightly upward trend in popularity. What do you think is the main reason for that rise in popularity?
Although President Biden is not officially on the ballot this fall in the midterm elections, historically, the President’s approval is closely correlated to their party’s success in midterm elections. Even somewhat popular presidents can have a drag on their party’s electoral outcomes. Based on your knowledge of American politics and the visual below, how do you think Biden will impact this year’s midterm?
Lets say you were a member of the White House Staff, working in the West Wing of the White House, advising President Biden. Maybe you were Ronald A. Klain, Chief of Staff; Michael C. Donilon, Senior Adviser; or Cedric L. Richmond, Senior Adviser. What political advice would you give POTUS Biden?
Learning Extension
Play with FiveThirtyEight’s Interactive Presidential Approval tracker.
Action Extension
Contact the President and tell him how to rally the country. Share your response from the White House with class.