Nationalized Elections
Critical Analysis
Based on the data from the visual above, what portion of donations to senate races in 2006 came from out of state?
Describe one trend you see in the data above?
Nearly two-thirds of donations to US Senate candidates in this election cycle have come from out-of-state contributors instead of from in-state constituents, reflecting an intense political tribalism in which control of Congress is prioritized over local issues. In nationalized elections people vote for a party not a person, and local issues are drowned out. Why do you think trend is happening?
Nationalized congressional elections, according to the University of Chicago professor of political science, Daniel Moskowitz, will mean less local news and government accountability. In your own words, describe the consequence of nationalized elections.
Tip O’Neill famously said “all politics is local.” And he was right, at the time (1977-1987) when O’Neill was speaker of the House. But O’Neill died in 1987 and now, all politics is national. Just think about the election going on in your congressional district. Unless you are in a very unusual district, you are not really voting about roads, or schools, or even taxes. What is this year’s election about?
Based on the data from the visual below. To what type of district is most of the out-of-state money going, and from what type of district is most of the out-of-state money coming?
Make a connection between political polarization, gerrymandering, out-of-state-funding, and the nationalization of politics.
Why do you think so much money from out of state is flowing to battleground states?
Imagine that the congress outlawed donations going across state lines (which, of course, they won’t do because that would be turning off the money spigot). But just imagine Congress outlawed giving across state (or even district) lines. What Amendment of the Bill of Rights and what Landmark Supreme Court Case precedent, would likely make such a law unconstitutional?
Explain whether you would give money to an out of state candidate.
Learning Extension
Check out all the amazing visuals on out of state giving from Bloomberg. Then listen to this NPR report on the nationalization of elections.
Action Extension
Research how much money your representative or senator has received from out-of-state funders and share your results with class.
Visual Extension*
Do you support Affirmative Action? It depends how you ask it!
According to the data from the visual above, what was the most common answer to the following: “Would you support or oppose an affirmative action program for higher education that decreases the share of Asian and white students at selective institutions in the United States?”
According to the data from the visual above, what was the most common answer to the following: “Do you generally support or oppose affirmative action in college admission?”
According to the data from the visual above, what was the most common answer to the following: “Would you support or oppose an affirmative action program for higher education that increases the share of Black and Hispanic students at selective institutions in the United States?”
Based on the data above, explain whether most Americans support affirmative action.
The way a question is asked or framed can determine the results of a poll. How is the concept of framing illustrated in the data from the visual above?
The term affirmative action has appeared in legislative and governmental documents going back to the 1930s and was specifically applied in reference to programs designed to address racial discrimination (particularly in employment and education) in the John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson administrations more than a half-century ago. It has been a consistent presence in discussions of discrimination and diversity across the decades since. How would you answer the three questions from the visual above?
How do you think affirmative action will impact your college application process?
The Supreme Court is poised to upend decades of precedent on affirmative action. This Monday, the justices heard two cases challenging race-conscious admissions policies at Harvard University and the University of North Carolina (which until the 1950s did not admit Black students). The universities use race as one of many factors when deciding which applicants to accept — a practice that has been affirmed multiple times by the Supreme Court, including in a 2003 case where the justices ruled that ensuring racial diversity in higher education is important enough to justify the limited use of race in college admissions. Now, just months after the Supreme Court upended a decades-old precedent on abortion rights, the precedent on affirmative action is in peril. How does this case illustrate the concept of stare decisis and can you think of any landmark Supreme Court case that overturned precedent?
When citizens disagree on a court ruling they can use the legislative process to try to remedy the court’s ruling. This year’s Dodds ruling overturned Roe v. Wade’s protection of abortion. Although public opinion on abortion is complex, Americans mostly did not want the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade and end the constitutional right to abortion. And since its overturning, state and federal legislatures have made many attempts to protect abortion rights. The court will rule on affirmative action in June. A ruling limiting or ending affirmative action in higher education would have a huge impact on college admissions. Based on the data above, do you think federal and state governments will try to write legislation promoting affirmative action?
Based on the visual below* how much do Americans want race to be a factor to be considered in college admissions?
Learning Extension
Listen to this account of this week’s Supreme Court oral arguments about affirmative action and listen to some of the highlights in the audio clips below.
And although they aren’t one of the 14 Landmark Supreme Court cases on the AP Exam, this NPR story outlines some of the recent Supreme Court rulings on affirmative action.
Action Extension
Ask the three polling questions above to a number of respondents (the larger the number of respondents the more meaningful your data) and compare the answers you received from the three different questions. Share your results in class.
Visual Extension*
Top issues in the midterm election
Critical Analysis
According to the data from the visual above what is the top issue in the 2022 midterm election for Registered Voters?
According to the visual what percent of all registered voters said that the coronavirus outbreak was very important to their vote in the 2022 midterm election?
Of all the issues listed in the visual above, which issue had the biggest gap between Republican and Democratic registered voters. in its level of importance?
Whether you can or cannot vote in next week’s election, how would you rank the topics listed in the visual above in order of importance to you?
Over the past century, the share of eligible voters has never been over half in midterm elections. Based on the chart below*, what do you think the percent of eligible voters will be in the 2022 midterm election?
Why do you think the economy is the most important issue to voters in the 2022 election?
Which party will benefit most from the fact that the economy (see chart below)* is the most important issue to voters?
Perhaps the most important issue in next week’s election is not even directly named on the list above. Many political scientists say that above all, midterm elections are a referendum (direct vote) on the job the president is doing. Joe Biden currently has a 42% approval rating. How much do you think Joe Biden will influence the outcome of the 2022 midterm election?
A student named Sam argued that because most presidents are elected to office with their party controlling a majority of Congress, but then at the midterm elections, typically the president’s party tends to lose the majority of the Congress; that presidents really are only elected for two year terms. Make a claim about whether Sam is correct.
Let’s just say that hypothetically Joseph Biden’s party loses control of the House and the Senate in the midterm election. Explain how the lose of his party’s control of Congress would impact Biden’s ability to govern the country.
Learning Extension
Check out all of the Pew Research Center visuals about voter intention in 2022.
Action Extension
Even if you can’t vote you can help mobilize voters in 2022. Volunteer to work with the Republican Party or the Democratic Party in the 2022 election.
Visual Extension*
Midterm Election Spending
Critical Analysis
According to the data from the visual, how much money was spent on the 1998 midterm election?
According to the data from the visual, how much money was spent on the 2018 (our most recent) midterm election?
Describe one trend you see in the data.
Identify two causes of that trend?
Based on changes over the past ten years, what amount do you predict will be spent on this year’s midterm elections?
Claim: the increase in campaign spending is a sign of the good health of American democracy. Use your reading of the chart and your knowledge of American politics to respond to this claim.
Explain why, relative to the major two parties, Third Parties/Minor Parties spend so little on elections?
What question do you have about this chart?
Explain how the ruling in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission impacted the spending in the chart? (Pro Tip: this is one of the 14 landmark SCOTUS cases that you should definitely know! You can learn a whole lot more about this case right here!)
Describe the connection between election spending and winning. (see visual below)
Learning Extension
Check out this fantabulous article on money and elections from Five Thirty Eight.
Action Extension
Check out the data from Open Secrets on the 2018 congressional elections and see how much your very own beloved U.S. representative spent. Share the data in class or online.
Visual Extension
Total cost of U.S. midterm elections from 1998 to 2018 by party (in million U.S. dollars)
'Til Death Do Us Part(isanship)
Critical Analysis
Based on the data from the chart above, how likely are Republicans to marry Democrats?
Of the two major parties, which is more likely to marry an independent?
What story does this chart tell about American politics.
The rate of opposite-party marriages, when a person marries someone who identifies with the opposing political party, is small. Only 3 percent of all American adults are married to an individual from the opposing party, making up 6 percent of all marriages. Why do you think marriages outside of party are so rare?
Would you marry someone from the opposite party?
There isn’t a lot of historical data about inter-party and outer-party marriages, but when Gallup asked in 1958, “If you had a daughter of marriageable age, would you prefer she marry a Democrat or Republican, all other things being equal?” The results: 18% of Americans said they would prefer their daughter to marry a Democrat, 10% preferred a Republican, and the majority didn’t care. What does this information lead you to believe about political partisanship over the years?
Describe one of the causes most responsible for the increasing partisan division in the U.S.*
My wife’s mother and father were of different political parties. Do your parents come from the same political party?
List one question you have about this information.
Based on the data from the chart below, are people more likely to change parties or change partners?*
Learning Extension
Check out all the results of the 2020 Voter Study Group Report: “‘Til Death Do Us Part(isanship)”
Action Extension
Ask your parents the questions from the survey below, and with their permission, share their answers.
Visual Extension*
Midterm POTUS Popularity Contest
Critical Analysis
Based on the data from the visual above, roughly what was president Biden’s approval rating in August of this year?
Between 1947-2018, in how many years did the president’s party actually gain house seats in a midterm election?
In general, what rule would you create to describe the relationship between presidential approval and results in the midterm election.
In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 -2018, the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. The president’s party gained seats in the House only three times, but gained seats in the Senate on six occasions. The president’s party has gained seats in both houses only twice. Why do you think that presidential approval ratings impact congressional elections?
According to Gallup Polling, Joseph Biden currently has an approval rating of around 40%. If Biden's approval rating remains constant, according to the data above, approximately how many House seats will the Republican Party gain?
Evaluate the following statement by explaining what is incorrect about it. "When I vote in a midterm election, I am voting for a member of congress, not the president."
Imagine there is a proposal to eliminate midterm elections and hold US elections every four years. The term of the POTUS would remain at 4 years, the term of the US House would be 4 years, and the Senate term would be 8 years. Explain whether you think this would be a good idea.
Imagine that President Biden's approval ratings remain basically constant and his party loses control of the House and Senate. How will a Republican majority House and Senate affect Biden’s ability to govern?
If you could vote, how much do you imagine that President Biden will influence your voting decisions in the 2022 election?
What are some aspects of the US electoral system that will keep Biden's unpopularity from hurting Democrats too much in the midterm elections?
Learning Extension
Check out more cool data about the impact of inflation on midterms and presidential approval.
Action Extension
Contact the White House and explain one thing the POTUS could do to improve his approval rating.
Visual Extension*
Bonus Chart**
Can you vote if you don’t speak English?
Critical Analysis
According to the data from the map above, how many states are federally mandated to provide election materials in a non-English language?
Based on the data from the map above, draw a conclusion about what types of geographical areas are mandated to provide election materials in a non-English language?
Is your state federally mandated to provide election materials in a non-English language?
About 8.3% of the US speaks English less than “very well,” according to the US Census Bureau. These Americans face greater challenges participating in the electoral process. A students, who I will call Shawn, said that if people really want to vote, they should take the time to learn English. Do you think that states should be federally required to provided election materials in a non-English language?
Section 203 of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) was added in 1975 to increase voting accessibility for non-English speakers that have been historically excluded from the political process. It targets Spanish, Asian, Native American, and Alaskan Native languages. In eligible localities, it requires all elections to provide translated ballots and election information in other languages. Based on our current political climate, today’s high level of political polarization, and the highly partisan nature of Congress, do you think this section of this law would be passed today?
Section 203 covers localities where more than 10,000 or over 5% of voting-age citizens in state, county or municipality must be “members of a single language minority group,” and have limited English proficiency. For example, Hispanics with limited English proficiency are 5.8% of California’s population. That means all elections in the state must include ballots and election information in Spanish, even if an individual county or city doesn’t meet that population threshold. Spanish is the most covered language under section 203. Three states and 194 other counties in the US require ballots to be provided in Spanish. The next most common languages provided throughout the US are Chinese, Vietnamese, Navajo, Choctaw, and Filipino. If you were a member of congress today, would you vote to require non-English language election materials?
Since 2000, the Department of Justice has sued 36 localities for failing to comply with language accessibility requirements. How does this relate to the concept of federalism?
How does this relate to the concept of checks and balances?
The original Constitution doesn’t have much to say about the right to vote. Indeed, nowhere in the text does it explicitly say that citizens have the right to vote in elections. Instead, it merely states that anyone eligible to vote for the largest house of a state’s legislature is also eligible to vote for members of the House of Representatives from that state. As a result, states were left with the power to decide who qualified to vote, leading to considerable variation in the nation’s early years. While most states initially restricted voting to property-owning or tax-paying white men, some states, like New Jersey, allowed free Black men and women of both races to vote provided they met the property or tax requirements. While states soon began expanding voting rights to more citizens, this process unfolded unevenly because it was left up to each state. New Jersey actually revoked the vote from Black men and women in 1807 and North Carolina didn’t remove a property qualification until 1856. Similarly, Wyoming granted women the right to vote in 1869, long before all women achieved it nationally. This variability continues today, which is why felons can vote in some states but not in others. However, that’s not to say the Constitution says nothing about elections. Through the Elections Clause, it gives Congress and the federal government the power to determine the “Times, Places, and Manner” of congressional elections. Congress has used this power throughout the nation’s history to, for example, establish a single national Election Day and mandate single-member congressional districts. Make a claim about whether we should amend the U.S. Constitution, guaranteeing a proactive right to vote?
Based on your knowledge of the American political system and the visual below*, explain whether English proficiency impacts voter turnout rates in America?
Learning Extension
Check out the whole story on voting and language from USA FACTS.
Action Extension
If you will be 17 years old by Tuesday, November 8 you can be a democracy hero and apply to become a Student Election Assistant. <—This is the link to apply in North Carolina. Look up your state board of elections online and see if you qualify to be a student election assistant. You get to help democracy and get paid!
Visual Extension*
Get AP exam-ready with diagnostic tests, online review games, test review sheets, practice quizzes, full-length practice exam, and self-guided writing workshops. We'll make studying a breeze.
Americans' Trust in the Three Branches of the Federal Government
Critical Analysis
According to the data from the visual above, in 1972, about what percent of Americans had a great deal/a fair amount of confidence in the Executive branch of the federal government?
According to the data from the visual above, in 2022 (fifty years later), about what percent of Americans had a great deal/a fair amount of confidence in the Legislative branch of the federal government?
Since 1972, describe what has happened to Americans’ overall trust and confidence in all three branches of government.
What do you think is the best explanation of that trend?
What is one consequence of that trend?
According to the data from the visual above, how do the three branches of the federal government compare in Americans’ trust in them?
How do you think party affiliation impacts trust in the government?*
The branch (judiciary) that is the least democratic (unelected) is the most popular. The branch (legislative) that is the most democratic (most often elected) is the least popular. Explain that one!
Madison wrote in Federalist 51, “ambition must be made to counteract ambition.” What do you think that quote means?
How does Madison’s quote above connect to the data in the chart?
Visual Extension
Learning Extension
Read the Gallup report on American attitudes toward government.
Action Extension
Article V of the U.S. Constitution provides two methods of adopting amendments. First, Congress may, by a two-thirds majority in both houses, propose amendments to the states. Second, if two-thirds of the states ask Congress to call a constitutional convention, Congress must do so. Every amendment to date has been proposed and ratified through the first method. These groups are seeking to persuade state legislatures to take the country into the uncharted territory of an Article V convention. Think about a way you would like the U.S. Constitution to change-repeal the 22nd Amendment, legalize drones in high school classrooms, allow for elections for the federal judiciary, etc. Contact your U.S. Representative and ask them to adopt your amendment.
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