When will we know the election results?
Critical Analysis
Find answers to the following questions using the visual above, any links below, your big brain, and your knowledge of American government and politics:
The past is never a perfect predictor of the future but it’s a good place to start. According to the data from the visual above, in the 2020 election, how many states were NOT called on election night?
According to the data from the visual above, of those states which have competitive Senate races in 2022, how many were not called on election night 2020?
The following seven states are considered swing states because their populations are so evenly split between Democrats and Republicans that the past elections were decided by less than three points and we really don’t know who will win: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona. According to the visual above, how may of those states were called on election night?
Based on the visuals above and below,* explain whether you think the election results will be known on election night. (You can share your answer in the comments section below!)
Instead of election day, we now have election month. As of this Sunday over 75 million votes have already been cast. In 2020, only 30% of all votes were cast on election day. Most state laws prohibit counting early votes before election day. In the 2020 presidential election, The Associated Press did not declare Joe Biden the winner until four days after Election Day – at 11:26 a.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 7. And final results in Georgia were not known until November 19, 16 days after the election. Today, some people, despite all evidence to the contrary, still do not accept the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. When do you think we will know the final results of the 2024 presidential election?
According to the Washington Post, officials in a handful of closely contested states - Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin - are warning that the winners of tight races may not be known on election night and have preemptively called for patience. In the 2020 election, Trump and his supporters used long lag times in the count to whip up false claims of a rigged process. If election results are not known quickly, how will that affect claims of election fraud and the legitimacy of the election results?
Trust is at the heart of the democratic process. People who enter into a contest have to trust their opponents enough to be willing to accept the results of an election, even if they lose. Political legitimacy is the general belief that the government has the right to rule/exercise authority. How would you describe the level of trust between Democrats and Republicans in American today?
In a sporting event, rules to the game are known before a competition, referees enforce these rules, and teams who agree to abide by the outcome of the competition. Think creatively about how this relates to American politics. (Who are the referees in the game of politics? What are the rules of the game? Who wrote them? If one side does not agree with the rules what should they do? If you don’t like the refs what should you do? Do both of our teams agree to abide by the outcome? What do the winners of the game get? What about the losers? Will this be the last game?) Use the competition analogy to describe the state of politics in America today.
A student named Stan said, “When people doubt the legitimacy of elections it doesn’t matter who wins, because democracy has already lost.” Respond to Stan’s comment.
Look at the most recent swing states polls below. Who do you think will win the election and how does that make you feel?
Write and Discuss
Take ten minutes to write about the question at the top of the page and then discuss with your classmates.
Act on your Learning
Be patient: This election is probably going to go on a while. As you learn election results be careful before you share them. NPR has some pro tips about how to avoid sharing false or misleading news about the election. For example: Consider the source of the news. Be aware that the pace of election results likely reflects different rules of different states (hello federalism!) Be wary of what photos and videos purport to show (beware of deep fakes.) Remember, documented cases of election fraud are extremely rare. If a news story gives you an emotional response, pause. Put these tips to use as you follow election results tonight.
Get Creative
Write down five adjectives to describe how you feel about the election.
