What did we learn from the exit polls?

Critical Analysis

Find answers to the following questions using the visual above, any links below, your big brain, and your knowledge of American government and politics:

1. Exit polls are an imperfect measure of the public, and no group of voters is monolithic, however exit polls give us lots of insights into voting behavior. Based on the exit polling data above, what portion of women voted Democratic in the election?

2. According to the data above, what portion of all voters in the 2022 midterm election were women?

3. We use the term gender gap describes the difference by which both genders tend to support one party more than the other. What is the best explanation for the gender gap?

4. Although no voting group is monolithic, women clearly favored the Democratic party in the 2022 midterm elections. Why do you think women voted more Democratic in 2022?

5. It’s interesting to note that the Hispanic vote in the 2020 Presidential election was 65% Democrat to 32% Republican. However, in this year’s midterm, Democrats were only able to win 60% of the Hispanic vote (down 5%). Why do you think the Hispanic vote is trending toward the Republican Party?

6. I have heard a number of political analysts say that Generation Z and the youth vote was the only thing that kept Democrats from losing more seats in Congress. Respond to that claim, based on the data above.

7. Based on the exit poll demographics from the visual above draw two conclusions about demographics and voting as of 2022.

8. Despite the clarity in the numbers above, we still don’t know the outcome of many elections, nor do we know the final party breakdown of the new congress. Explain why exit polling data does not translate more directly into congressional control (see visual below*).

9. What do you think the take-away message of the data above is to operatives in both parties.

10. I have heard a number of pundits say that it’s not clear who won the election (see visual below*), but it is very clear who lost the election: Donald Trump. Explain whether you agree with this assessment.

Write and Discuss

Take ten minutes to write about the question at the top of the page and then discuss with your classmates.

Act on your Learning

Be patient: This election is probably going to go on a while. As you learn election results be careful before you share them. NPR has some pro tips about how to avoid sharing false or misleading news about the election. For example: Consider the source of the news. Be aware that the pace of election results likely reflects different rules of different states (hello federalism!) Be wary of what photos and videos purport to show (beware of deep fakes.) Remember, documented cases of election fraud are extremely rare. If a news story gives you an emotional response, pause. Make a post on your socials to advise the likely next president, based on the exit polls, on how to govern successfully.

Get Creative

If the likely next-president were a kind of weather, what weather would they be?

Learning Extension*

Read the complete exit polling data.