Critical Analysis
Find answers to the following questions using the visual above, your big brain, the information provided and any links below:
In which year did the president’s party lose the most House seats in its first midterm? About how many seats did it lose?
Only one dot is above zero. Which year is it, and who was president? What was happening in the country that might explain why his party gained seats?
Using the chart, calculate the average number of House seats the president’s party lost across the 12 midterms shown.
Identify one trend in the chart. Describe how the president’s net approval rating relates to the number of seats his party loses.
Explain two reasons the president’s party almost always loses seats in a midterm election. Use at least one of these terms: referendum on the president, coattail effect, midterm turnout, divided government.
In 1966 and 2010, the president’s approval was well above zero, yet his party lost a lot of seats. What else besides approval might make voters punish the president’s party
Using the gold star and the gold line, predict how many seats the president’s party will lose on November 3. Then look up how many seats Republicans can lose and still keep their House majority. Will they keep it?
In Federalist No. 52 (NOT a required document), Madison says the House should have “an immediate dependence on, and an intimate sympathy with, the people.” How do two-year House terms and midterm elections carry out that design?
If the president’s party loses the House, how would divided government change his ability to pass his agenda? Think about legislation, oversight, investigations, the budget and executive orders.
Is the “midterm penalty” good for democracy? Does it hold presidents accountable, or does it just lead to gridlock? Support your claim with evidence from the chart and from your own life. For example, do the adults in your life vote in midterms as often as in presidential elections?
Write and Discuss
Take ten minutes to write about the question at the top of the page and then discuss with your classmates.
Act on your Learning
Find your congressional district’s House race. Is it a competitive seat or a safe seat? Make a claim about who will win.
Get Creative
After November 3, redraw the visual and add the real 2026 result. Was the prediction close? Bonus: write a campaign slogan for Hank, the VP.
Learn More*
Check out more cool data about the impact of inflation on midterms and presidential approval.
