Now that Donald Trump has been elected to a second term and Joe Biden was not elected to a second term, how many one-term presidents has the U.S. had?
*Democrat Grover Cleveland was the 22nd and 24th president of the United States, having served from 1885 to 1889, losing his initial bid for re-election in 1888 to Republican Benjamin Harrison and then returning to office from 1893 to 1897. Donald Trump has now joined Cleveland as a staggered two-term president having served from 2021-2021, losing re-election to Joe Biden in 2020, then returning to office in 2025.
Critical Analysis
Find answers to the following questions using the visual above, any links below, your big brain, and your knowledge of American government and politics:
Based on the visual and notes above, How many U.S. presidents have served only one term in office?
On January 20, 2021 Joe Biden became the 46th President of the United States but was only the 45th person to hold the office. On January 20, 2021 Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States but was only the 45th person to hold the office.On Jan Explain that mathematical conundrum!* (Pro Hint: “Uncle Jumbo”)
Our most recent one-term presidents: Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Gerald Ford have been judged harshly by history. How do you think President Joe Biden will be judged by history?
About four out of five times, when incumbent American presidents run for reelection they win. There are many reasons incumbent presidents tend to win reelection. 1) political inertia and status quo bias (most people will support an incumbent they voted for the last time); 2) experience campaigning; 3) the power to influence events (such as well-timed economic stimulus); 4) the stature of being a proven leader; 5) the ability to command media attention in a “constant campaign” environment; and 6) a united party with no bruising primary challenges. Which of these factors do you think is most helpful to presidents facing reelection?
Between 1936 and 2012, 11 out of 14 presidents seeking a second White House term were re-elected. Before the 2020 election, the US had gone 28 years without a president failing to win a second term. This success rate convinced many that, as with other elected offices, incumbency offers distinct advantages for the presidency. But in 2020 Trump was not reelected to office. In 2024, Joe Biden failed to be reelected to office. What do you think explains this recent trend of incumbents losing reelection?
For much of the 20th century, presidents could benefit from incumbency because voters were more likely to judge presidents on their individual character, not only their partisan affiliation. Winning a presidential election relied on keeping some of that cross-partisan support, which was there for the taking. How has increasing political polarization diminished the likelihood of incumbent reeelection in recent years?
American voters are angry. Almost two-thirds of Americans (65 percent) now report feeling “exhausted” when they think about politics, more than half report feeling “Angry,” and only one in ten say they feel “hopeful.” It’s been 20 years since a majority of Americans said they were at least somewhat satisfied “With the Way Things Are Going in the U.S.” (In October, only 19 percent of Americans were satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S.). Why do you think Americans are so angry?
Angry American voters have voted the incumbent part out in the past two elections. In 2020, dissatisfied change voters contributed to the anti-MAGA majority. They wanted Trump out of office. So, they showed up for Biden. Now, who knows? In 2020, Biden could promise an end to the craziness of Trump, and a presidency of unity, healing, and normalcy. In 2024, he was just another unpopular incumbent, where angry voters wanted a change - and Biden lost because of that. Imagine that an 86 year-old Joe Biden came out of retirement and ran against Donald trump in 2028. Do you think the voters would vote the incumbent (Trump) out of office?
President Trump (#47) takes office in an era of profound distrust ingrained political disaffection, and political anger. How do you think this will impact his ability to govern?
The 22nd Amendment limits presidents to two terms in office. Do you think this will be Trump’s last term in office?
Write and Discuss
Take ten minutes to write about the question at the top of the page and then discuss with your classmates.
Act on your Learning
Tweet to Joe Biden @JoeBiden and explain to him why you think he was a one term president.
Get Creative
Redesign the image above, adding a spot for Joe Biden.
