Who will be the next American president?
Current Event Friday
Critical Analysis
Find answers to the following questions using the visual above, any links below, and your knowledge of American government and politics:
If the numbers from the visual above hold true on election day next year, who will win your state’s popular vote in the next presidential election?
If the numbers from the visual above hold true on election day next year, who will win the national popular vote in the next presidential election?
If the numbers from the visual above hold true on election day next year, what would be the final electoral college vote count in the next presidential election?
If the numbers from the visual above hold true on election day next year, who will be the next American president?
Based on the results of this and other recent polling data, some Democrats have called for Joe Biden to step aside so another Democrat, such as VEEP Kamala Harris or California Governor Gavin Newsom could run against Donald Trump. According to the data from the visual above, would a Biden Democratic alternative likely win the election?
Despite Trump’s lead, the race in the battleground states (also called “swing states”) is extremely close (see visuals above and below*), with four states forecast to be won by less than 2% of the vote, and Nevada and Michigan projected to be won by Biden. Explain how the electoral college makes swing states so valuable in U.S. presidential elections.
"Presidential polls are usually considered to be unpredictive this far in advance," according to Northeastern University associate professor of political science Nick Beauchamp. "As you get closer to the election, the accuracy of the polls goes up and the error goes down, and right now we're in the band where the error is equivalent to flipping a coin." Public opinion polls ahead of the 2020 election were the most inaccurate in a generation, according to Josh Clinton, Chair and professor of political science at Vanderbilt University, who recently served as chair of a special task force convened by the American Association for Public Opinion Research specifically to evaluate polling. Make a claim about accurate the polling data above and below will match the results on election day?
Based on the visual above and below, who do you think will win the 2024 presidential election?
There are a number of major political developments that could possibly occur between now and next November: escalation of U.S. involvement in War in Middle East; escalation of U.S. involvement in War in Ukraine; Trump Conviction; Taylor Swift endorses a presidential candidate; Death of Democratic or Republican presidential candidate (they are a combined age of 157 years after all); expanding Congressional investigation into Joe Biden and Family; a major third-party candidate runs for president (whether they win or not they could siphon votes away from both major party candidates); major Supreme Court ruling; major economic changes (in either direction); major changes in immigration; major natural disaster (pandemic, hurricane, flood, heatwave, cold snap, or other climate disaster); Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl; etc. What would you speculate are some major events external to the campaigns that could impact the outcome of the election.
The results in Georgia were central to determining the outcome of the 2020 presidential election After clicking through the states in the visual above is there a state that you see as most pivotal to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election?
Learning Extension
Action Extension
Tweet the presidential campaigns with advice of how to defeat their opponent: Donald Trump @realDonaldTrump or Joe Biden @POTUS
