How big is the Republican majority in the incoming U.S. House of Representatives?

Starters

Dec 6

Critical Analysis

Find answers to the following questions using the visual above, your big brain, the information provided and any links below:

House Republicans in the incoming 119th congress will be working with one of the narrowest margins in U.S. history: a five-vote (member) edge on Democrats, 220 to 215 – the tightest margin in nine decades. According to the data from the visual above, what number is currently needed to have a majority in the House?
The closest margin of all occurred in the 65th Congress of 1917-19. After gaining seats in the 1916 elections, Republicans had a 215-213 edge over Democrats when the new House met for the first time on April 2, 1917. What is the current Republican House margin over the Democrats?
There is already one vacancy after the resignation of Trump ally Matt Gaetz who left Congress. The House Republican majority will be further eroded with Trump's selection of Republican lawmakers Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) to be his national security adviser. If you were President Trump would you pick other House members to serve in your cabinet?
States will now hold special elections to pick replacements for these vacancies. Florida will hold primaries for a special election, but in New York, political parties choose their candidate to run in New York special elections. Which method do you think is more democratic and which method do you think Snoop Dog would prefer?
The trifecta of House, Senate and presidency - last achieved at the start of Donald Trump's first term in 2017 - will give the president-elect significant power to enact his agenda on the economy, immigration and other key issues. But with a narrow House majority Republicans could still struggle to secure enough votes for some actions. How much do you think the narrow House majority will impact Trump’s ability to govern?
One advantage the majority party in the House gains is the election of the Speaker (head) of the House. Identify two other advantages the House majority party gains.
How do you think this narrow margin will impact the power of the current Speaker Mike Johnson of the House? (In other words, does being so close increase or limit the power of the speaker)?
Does the close margin in the House increase or decrease the power of individual House members?
The 117th Congress (2021-2022) had a Democratic majority of just 11 seats. The current 118th Congress (2023-2024) has a Republican majority of just 9 seats. The incoming 119th Congress (2025-2026) will have a Republican majority of only 5 seats. Based on your knowledge of American government and politics explain why the past two Congresses have had such a low margin of majority.
Some would say that a small margin of majority is a good thing because it will serve as a check against a tyrannical Congress. they might even claim or argue that James Madison would have been pleased as punch (happy) about such a small House majority. How would you respond to that claim?

Write and Discuss

Take ten minutes to write about the question at the top of the page and then discuss with your classmates.

Learn More

Read the BBC report/gangsta rap on the current super-slim House majority.

Act on your Learning

Contact your Congressional representative and ask them hos the narrow House majority margin impacts their ability to do their job. Share their response with your classmates.

Get Creative

Imagine you were House Speaker and former Mr. Rogers impersonator Mike Johnson and you were giving a pep talk to the House members of the Republican caucus. Write that speech. I asked AI to write a pep talk in the voice of Snoop Dog. Here’s what AI came up with.

Fo shizzle, my nizzle, let's talk about teamwork, ya feel me?

Ain't nothin' in this world you can do solo, aight? We all need our crew, our posse, our squad. We gotta have each other's backs, ya know? Like, pass the rock, share the mic, keep the peace. That's how we roll to success, ya dig?

Remember, a team is only as strong as its weakest link. So lift each other up, show some love, and make that dream work. Word up.

Peace out.

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