How did American counties swing in the 2024 election?

Starters
Written By Jonathan Milner

Critical Analysis

Find answers to the following questions using the visual above, any links below, your big brain, and your knowledge of American government and politics:

  1. According to the data from the map above, counties that voted more Republican in 2024 than they did in 2020 are shown as red, and counties that voted more Democratic in 2024 are shown in blue. What color is more represented in the map above?

  2. What states in the map above have the most red arrows?

  3. How many states in the map above have both red arrows and blue arrows?

  4. Wyoming is a very conservative pro-Republican state. Why do you think Wyoming didn’t have many red arrows in this election?

  5. Explain how it would be hypothetically possible to have more red (Republican) arrows than blue (Democratic) arrows, and still have a blue (Democratic) candidate win the election?

  6. The coattail effect describes the fact that when one party wins the top of the ticket (the presidency) usually that same party wins races lower down the ticket (House, Senate, Governor, etc.) Given that so many states had so many red arrows what other conclusion could you reasonably draw about the outcome of 2024 American elections other than the presidential election?

  7. Based on the visual below* what type of county was the kindest to Trump in 2024?

  8. Colorado is an interesting state. It is one of the only states that seems to have gotten more blue (Democratic). One person suggested to me that Colorado was more blue because so many Democrats from California had moved there in the last four years. What are some other plausible explanations for why one state might have moved in a very different direction from the rest of the nation?

  9. Obviously, there are lots of reasons Donald Trump won as represented by all the red arrows. Are there any events in the past four years that explain why the U.S. has had such a rightward (red) shift?

  10. Do you think it is more accurate to say that Trump won the election or that Harris lost the election?

Write and Discuss

Take ten minutes to write about the question at the top of the page and then discuss with your classmates.

Act on your Learning

Contact the Democratic party and let them know what you think they can do to ever win a presidential election again.

Get Creative

Write a thank you card to the sate that if you were Donald Trump, based on the map above, you would most want to thank for your victory.

Learning Extension*

Read the complete exit polling data.

 
 

GoPo Glossary

Jonathan Milner

Civics Maven!

https://www.gopopro.com/
Previous

Which American political party has more members?
Next

How competitive were U.S. House races in 2024?